A puzzle

[Mudbill]

I can see how in the lottery scenario you'd have to be incredibly unlucky to pick the right option first, seeing as it's a 1/140m. It would make sense to swap. But this entire thing is a probability paradox, and is hard to actually apply to real life. Regardless, I do see where people are trying to go with it and it does make sense, I just don't like it.

I think I will just submit defeat. I understand why it would be a better chance, but effectively you're left with 2 options and 2 results. Oh well. I grow tired of discussing this one. Guess that's what "paradoxes" do to you.